That could indeed be what brought producing nations to the table.
“In 2014, OPEC revenues were about a trillion dollars. Last year, they were half a trillion dollars. This year they’re on a course to be down another 20 percent,” said Yergin. “This creates inordinate pressure on governments. Very difficult choices have to be made. Budgets have to be cut, credit ratings go down. There is a risk of social turmoil and problems. I think that is really weighing on producers, forcing them to find some way to stabilize things.”
According to a new CNBC Oil Survey, there’s better than a 50/50 chance of a freeze agreement being reached, and any deal would be seen as supportive of prices. If it fails, the survey respondents see prices falling sharply, but not all the way back to the February lows.
Read MoreA Doha deal could boost prices: Survey
If an agreement can’t be reached and oil prices fall, analysts expect the ripple effects to be felt across financial markets Monday.
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“I think they’re trying to put lip stick on this pig,” said Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “They will try to make sure they don’t walk away grim faced.”
Edward Morse, Citigroup global head of commodities research, said there could be an accord but it will lack in detail and commitment. “I think at best, it’s going to be a very soft agreement,” he said. Morse said the group could also announce that it has a follow-up meeting, but no binding deal is expected.
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Oil prices have risen about 55 percent since Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela agreed in February to freeze output if other producers would join them. Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak, reportedly told a closed-door briefing of energy analysts this week that a deal would be more of a framework, without specifics.
“I do not expect to see a firm agreement coming from Sunday’s meeting. I think kicking it down the road to some future deal is the best we’re going to get … kicking it down the road and hoping the oil market fundamentals improve enough,” said Chris Weafer, senior partner at Macro-Advisory. “When this started, the oil price had dipped below $30. They had to do something and creating optimism has worked very well, and it has had traders building long positions.”
Read MoreU.S. oil output drop is ‘buying time’
The focus in recent weeks has been on the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and those concerns picked up when Saudi Arabian Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said the kingdom would not participate in a freeze unless other nations also did.
But Iran on the other hand, has said it will not abide by a production cut, as it is working to bring oil back on the market, now that it is no longer being sanctioned. The IEA said Iran’s March output was 400,000 barrels a day higher than it was at the start of the year, and Iran has said it wants to add a total of a million barrels this year.
“It would be extremely difficult for the Saudis to say ‘We’re absolutely freezing this hard and fast,'” Morse said.
Yergin said Iran’s domestic politics do not allow for much flexibility and it would be difficult to publicly back down from its plan to return oil to the market.
“If it was not for the tensions between Saudia Arabia and Iran, they might well have been able to work something out,” said Yergin.
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Barclays’ head of energy commodities research, Michael Cohen, said he expects Saudi Arabia’s oil officials will have a plan before they arrive in Doha. Saudi Arabia was the driver behind OPEC’s 2014 decision to let the market set the price of oil, in an effort to maintain its market share and knock out high-priced producers, like U.S. shale.
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“I think the likelihood is they’ll have all their ducks in a row. The Saudis will all know what they’re allowed to say and it will have been sanctioned all the way to the top,” said Cohen. “If the Saudis were having cold feet, this meeting would already be canceled.”
The stakes are high for producers to leave Doha without the appearance of an accord, so that oil prices do not collapse again. But bin Salman, who controls the Saudi oil operations, is a relative unknown and it has been unclear whether he would dig in if Iran refuses to budge on output.
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Cohen said he doesn’t expect the meeting to fall apart. “I think the more likely scenario is we get a vague agreement and everyone signs on and everyone is happy and they buy themselves time to get through the shoulder season,” he said.
The statement will be less important than the comments from producers, Cohen said. “They have to have something so it’s likely to be vague and the market has very low expectations, so our view is that given their very low expectations, it’s important to keep in mind that you’re getting a bunch of producers together in Doha, and if they start speaking to the press they’re likely to have bullish statements about the market adjusting and their output not increasing.”
From Moscow to Riyadh, no producer has gone unharmed. That also includes the U.S. shale industry, which operates based on the drivers of supply and demand, and the availability of financing, as opposed to a government dictate.
The hit from months of falling oil prices has finally shown up in U.S. production, which was under 9 million barrels a day last week for the first time since late 2014.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday said that the expected drop-off in U.S. production was beginning to accelerate, and that the oil market could get close to being balanced in the second half of the year. The IEA also said if the producing nations do agree to a freeze, the impact would be much more limited than an output cut.
The U.S. industry is also seeing stockpiles grow but it has now begun refinery maintenance season, typically a period of lower oil demand as refineries get ready to switch to summer gasoline production. It is also called the shoulder season.
West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 2.8 percent Friday at $40.36 per barrel Friday, on concerns about the freeze deal after Iran reiterated its refusal to freeze output. Given the low expectations for the meeting, there are mixed projections for what will happen to oil prices after the weekend.
“I think it’s negative,” said Kilduff. “I think the market has rewarded them richly for action and inaction will be punished.” Kilduff said he expects the deal to be light on details.
Morse said the language used by producers will make a difference to the oil price, which he said is more likely to fall after the meeting. “It very much depends on the statement,” he said.
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